Eine Anleitung zum Nach-, Quer- und Gegendenken »Ich weiß, dass ich nichts wei߫, erkannte bereits Sokrates. Wie wir aber mit dem Unbekannten, mit dem, was wir nicht wissen, faktisch umgehen und idealerweise umgehen sollten, das beschreibt der Risikoforscher und Essayist Nassim Nicholas Taleb in seinem Handbuch. Er enthüllt die Begrenztheiten unserer Datenverliebtheit genauso wie die folgenschweren Irrtümer und Voreingenommenheiten unseres Denkens. So zeigt er, wie uns Denkfehler, falsche Kategorien und blinde Flecken immer wieder in die Irre führen – und wie wir mit Unwissen gewinnbringend umgehen können. Denn: »Für den einen ist ein Irrtum bloß ein Irrtum, für den anderen ist er eine Information.«
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.
The landmark five-book investigation of uncertainty, chance, volatility, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand--now in a beautifully designed, cloth-bound deluxe hardcover boxed set. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's New York Times bestselling series--consisting of Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, The Bed of Procrustes, and Skin in the Game--has changed the way millions see the world and think about uncertainty, chance, volatility, and risk across a wide range of domains. They can be read singly but are also written to complement each other and actually comprise a single work. The Incerto is that collection, newly designed and boxed (now including his most recently published book, Skin in the Game) to offer readers the full scope of the most significant and impactful intellectual projects of our time. In Fooled by Randomness, Taleb explores the impact of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives--randomness--and its effects in the forum in which luck is most conspicuously mistaken for skill: the world of business. In The Black Swan, Taleb shows us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. The Bed of Procrustes, a provocative book of aphorisms, represents Taleb's view of modern civilization's hubristic side effects--modifying humans to satisfy technology and blaming reality for not fitting economic models. In Antifragile, Taleb identifies a category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and thrive. Skin in the Game shows how the willingness to accept one's own risks is an essential attribute of heroes, saints, and flourishing people in all walks of life.
Warum wir nur denen vertrauen sollten, die etwas zu verlieren haben Stehen wir für die Risiken ein, die wir verursachen? Zu viele der Menschen, die auf der Welt Macht und Einfluss haben, so Nassim Nicholas Taleb, müssen nicht wirklich den Kopf hinhalten für das, was sie tun und veranlassen. Intellektuelle, Journalisten, Bürokraten, Banker, ihnen vor allem wirft er vor, kein »Skin in the Game« zu haben. Weil sie den Preis nicht bezahlen müssen, wenn sie irren, fällen sie schlechte Entscheidungen. Taleb zeigt anhand vieler Beispiele, wie »Skin in the Game«, ein fundamentales Konzept des Risikomanagements, auf alle Bereiche unseres Lebens übertragen werden kann. Sein neues Buch, so provozierend und bahnbrechend wie »Der Schwarze Schwan«, fordert uns heraus, alles, was wir über Risiko und Verantwortung in Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft zu wissen glauben, neu zu denken.
New York Times bestselling author Nassim Taleb's landmark Incerto series - Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, The Bed of Procrustes - gathered together for the first time, in a beautifully designed box set.
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
Die Summe von Talebs Denken – originelle Thesen, eleganter Lesegenuss und scharfe Pointen Wir leben in einer unsicheren Welt, und das System, das sie beherrscht, hat auf dramatische Weise vorgeführt, wie zerbrechlich es ist. Und doch haben wir nichts daraus gelernt und setzen dieser Fragilität keine »Antifragilität« entgegen. Der Bestsellerautor Nassim Nicholas Taleb zeigt uns indes, wie das gehen kann. Er überträgt seine Erkenntnisse aus der Zufallsforschung auf nahezu alle lebenspraktischen Bereiche von der Erziehung über Kultur bis zur Politik. So gelingt ihm eine große, praktisch-philosophische Antwort auf die Herausforderungen unsicherer Zeiten. Denn wir gewinnen nicht, indem wir Zufälle und Ungewissheit um jeden Preis abzuwehren versuchen, sondern indem wir sie zu Stärken ummünzen: Das Antifragile bleibt – alles andere wird verschwinden.
Der Zufall ist des Glückes Schmied. Glück oder Zufall sind viel bestimmender in unserem Leben, als wir denken. Wir neigen dazu, unser Glück auf unsere eigenen Fähigkeiten zurückzuführen, den Zufall halten wir für unsere Bestimmung. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, renommierter Statistiker und Erfolgsautor des Bestsellers »Der schwarze Schwan«, entlarvt unsere menschliche Schwäche, dort Zusammenhänge zu suchen, wo keine sind.
Edward Thorp ist eine lebende Legende – auf dem Gebiet des Glücksspiels UND im Bereich der Finanzmärkte. In den 60er-Jahren veränderte der Mathematik-Professor Blackjack für immer, weil er eine Methode entwickelte, die Bank zu schlagen. In der Folge wurden die Spielregeln geändert. Für seine Errungenschaften als Hedgefonds-Manager nahm Jack Schwager ihn in den illustren Kreis der "Magier der Märkte" auf. Mit "Ein Mann für alle Märkte" legt Thorp seine Autobiografie vor, die für Glücksspielbegeisterte wie Geldanleger – ob privat oder professionell – gleichermaßen faszinierende Lektüre ist.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world. Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls antifragile are things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. Here Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What's more, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call "efficient" not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before starting on the job? How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems and medicine, drawing on modern street wisdom and ancient sources. Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: the antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge and has led three careers around this focus, as a businessman-trader, a philosophical essayist, and an academic researcher. Although he now spends most of his time working in intense seclusion in his study, in the manner of independent scholars, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is "decision making under opacity," that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don't understand. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in thirty-three languages. Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.
The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review
Riley Jenson, die übernatürlich schöne Werwölfin mit dem gewissen Extra an Vampirblut in ihren Adern, steht vor einem neuen, aufregenden Fall: Melbourne wird von einer bizarren Mordserie in Atem gehalten, und Rileys Spur führt sie zu einem exklusiven Nachtclub in der Stadt. Mit der Hilfe von sexy Barkeeper Jin, der sich sehr schnell auf sehr erotische Weise in ihre Träume schleicht, versucht sie, die losen Enden des Falles zu verbinden – und wird plötzlich selbst zur Zielscheibe des Killers ...
In this profound and playful book, Nassim Nicholas Taleb presents his ideas about life in the form of aphorisms, the world's earliest - and most memorable - literary form. Procrustes was a character from Greek mythology who abducted travellers and invited them to spend the night in a special bed, which they had to fit to perfection. They never did. Those who were too tall had their legs chopped off; those who were too short were stretched. Every aphorism here is about a Procrustean bed of sorts - we humans, facing the limits of our knowledge, the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life and the world into crisp commoditized ideas, reductive categories, specific vocabularies and pre-packaged narratives. Only by embracing the unexpected - and accepting what we don't know - can we see the world as it really is.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.
Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2009 im Fachbereich Psychologie - Sozialpsychologie, Note: 1,7, Hamburger Fern-Hochschule, Veranstaltung: Betriebssoziologie/-psychologie, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Im globalen Wettbewerb, in dem Kapital und Technologie immer austauschbarer werden und alle Unternehmen Zugang zu den gleichen Ressourcen haben, sind motivierte Mitarbeiter der Schlüssel zum Unternehmenserfolg. Was aber veranlasst Mitarbeiter, genau das „Mehr“ an Leistung zu erbringen, das im globalen Wettbewerb den Unterschied ausmacht? Hierbei kommt den Führungskräften besondere Bedeutung zu. Einer der Hauptaspekte der Unternehmen im 21. Jahrhundert unterscheidet, ist die Qualität ihrer Führungskräfte. Diese Arbeit bezieht Stellung zur Bedeutung der Auswirkungen von Management und Führung auf die Mitarbeitermotivation. Den Einstieg in die Arbeit bildet die Frage nach der Beziehung von Management und Führung auf die Mitarbeitermotivation, deren Zusammenhang anhand ganzheitlicher Denkansätze von Malik, Drucker und Sprenger verdeutlicht wird. Wie Mitarbeiter unter schwierigen Bedingungen zu Bestleistungen zu bewegen sind, soll ein neues Modell der Personalführung zeigen, welches die wichtigsten Hebel zur Beeinflussung der Mitarbeitermotivation identifiziert hat. Das Kapitel drei der Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit den Auswirkungen von Management und Führung auf die Mitarbeitermotivation in der betrieblichen Praxis. Bei der Bearbeitung dieser Fragestellung steht immer der einzelne Mensch im Mittelpunkt der Betrachtung. Das Führungsverhalten wird anhand von Beobachtungen aus der Sichtweise einer Person im mittleren Management geschildert. Der Darstellung der Auswirkungen auf die Mitarbeitermotivation folgt deren Analyse im Kontext der diskutierten Führungskonzepte. Im vierten Kapitel werden aus der Einschätzung des Praxisgeschehens heraus zukünftige Gestaltungsmöglichkeiten abgeleitet. Diese werden sowohl aus dem Blickwinkel der Führung als auch dem der Mitarbeiter betrachtet. Das Kapitel fünf schließlich fasst die gewonnen Erkenntnisse zu einem Gesamtergebnis zusammen.

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