"This is an important book, full of relevant examples and worrying case histories. By the end of it, the reader has been presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics...anyone who wants to take responsibly for their own medicalchoices should read it" - New Scientist However much we crave certainty, we live in an uncertain world. But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? Are ordinary people idiots when reasoning with risk? Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy. Here, he shows us that our difficulties in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome.
Dieses Buch erzählt davon, wie nach dem Ende des Kalten Kriegs ein neuer Kalter Krieg im Herzen unserer Gesellschaft eröffnet wird. Es ist die Geschichte einer Manipulation: Vor sechzig Jahren wurde von Militärs und Ökonomen das theoretische Model eines Menschen entwickelt. Ein egoistisches Wesen, das nur auf das Erreichen seiner Ziele, auf seinen Vorteil und das Austricksen der anderen bedacht war: ein moderner Homo oeconomicus. Nach seiner Karriere im Kalten Krieg wurde er nicht ausgemustert, sondern eroberte den Alltag des 21. Jahrhunderts. Aktienmärkte werden heute durch ihn gesteuert, Menschen ebenso. Er will in die Köpfe der Menschen eindringen, um Waren und Politik zu verkaufen. Das Modell ist zur selbsterfüllenden Prophezeiung geworden. Der Mensch ist als Träger seiner Entscheidungen abgelöst, das große Spiel des Lebens läuft ohne uns. Frank Schirrmacher zeichnet in seinem bahnbrechenden neuen Buch die Spur eines monströsen Doppelgängers nach und macht klar, dass die Konsequenzen seines Spiels das Ende der Demokratie sein könnte, wie wir sie heute kennen.
Uncertainty is the norm in medical practice, yet often gives rise to distress in clinicians, who fear they will make shameful or guilt inducing errors. This book offers a succinct method to clinicians for classifying uncertainty and finding the right skills to manage different types of uncertainty successfully. Every clinician experiences moments when 'they don't know what to do'. Modern medicine is increasingly complex and training has also become more complicated. The days of 'see one, do one, teach one' are over. Yet, both younger clinicians and senior practitioners describe uncertainty as one of the most challenging and stressful aspects of clinical work. If uncertainty is uncomfortable or threatening to individual practitioners, it also provides complex educational challenges. How can we learn to cope with uncertainty effectively ourselves? How can we teach others to understand and manage uncertainty? In this ground breaking book, the authors propose ways to cut through uncertainty, which is explored as an inevitable (and even desirable) component of clinical practice. A Map of Uncertainty in Medicine (MUM) is used to classify uncertainty and to define the skills that will help find a way though practical difficulties. It is always good to have your MUM with you in a tricky situation!
Der neue Bestseller von Gerd Gigerenzer Erinnern wir uns an die weltweite Angst vor der Schweinegrippe, als Experten eine nie dagewesene Pandemie prognostizierten und Impfstoff für Millionen produziert wurde, der später still und heimlich entsorgt werden musste. Für Gerd Gigerenzer ist dies nur ein Beleg unseres irrationalen Umgangs mit Risiken. Und das gilt für Experten ebenso wie für Laien. An Beispielen aus Medizin, Rechtswesen und Finanzwelt erläutert er, wie die Psychologie des Risikos funktioniert, was sie mit unseren entwicklungsgeschichtlich alten Hirnstrukturen zu tun hat und welche Gefahren damit einhergehen. Dabei analysiert er die ungute Rolle von irreführenden Informationen, die von Medien und Fachleuten verbreitet werden. Doch Risiken und Ungewissheiten richtig einzuschätzen kann und sollte jeder lernen. Diese Risikoschulung erprobt Gigerenzer seit vielen Jahren mit verblüffenden Ergebnissen. Sein Fazit: Schon Kinder können lernen, mit Risiken realistisch umzugehen und sich gegen Panikmache wie Verharmlosung zu immunisieren.
Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume (which follows on a previous collection, Adaptive Thinking, also published by OUP) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes a newly writen, substantial introduction, and the articles have been revised and updated where appropriate. This volume should appeal, like the earlier volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making.
This book provides the skills and knowledge to use information effectively when exercising professional judgement and clinical decisions. By integrating theory with practical examples, it provides an overview of the key issues facing nurses in decision making today. Review of up-to-date research into clinical professional judgement and decision making Focus on evidence and skills and knowledge relevant to nursing practice Combines current theory with analysis of applications in practice Learning exercises and self-assessment components in each chapter Comprehensive coverage of subject
The Evidence-based Practice Manual successfully breaks down the skills for evidence-based nursing into manageable components. The reader will learn how to find, critically read and interpret a range of research studies, and will discover optimal approaches to helping patients reach decisions that are informed by the best-available evidence. The more-strategic concepts of developing an organisational evidence-based culture and making evidence-based changes at organisational level are the focus of the final section. Step-by-step guide to finding, appraising and applying research evidence in nursing Teaches skills for successfully reviewing published literature: formulating a focused question developing a search strategy for efficient retrieval of relevant studies appraising the retrieved studies All examples are relevant to nurses and nursing Reflects contemporary nursing issues A new chapter on ‘Using research evidence in making clinical decisions with the individual patient’ provides practical guidance and tools for decision-making A new chapter on ‘Using evidence from qualitative studies’ explains the complexities of qualitative methodologies and methods in a simple, easily understood way Online exercises and solutions Help the reader test out and consolidate newly acquired skills and knowledge Provide an opportunity to critically appraise studies with the following range of designs: qualitative research a randomised controlled trial a cohort study a case control study a diagnostic test accuracy study a systematic review a clinical guideline Example solutions are provided, all written by experts in the field.
From the medicine we take, the treatments we receive, the aptitude and psychometric tests given by employers, the cars we drive, the clothes we wear to even the beer we drink, statistics have given shape to the world we inhabit. For the media, statistics are routinely 'damning', 'horrifying', or, occasionally, 'encouraging'. Yet, for all their ubiquity, most of us really don't know what to make of statistics. Exploring the history, mathematics, philosophy and practical use of statistics, Eileen Magnello - accompanied by Bill Mayblin's intelligent graphic illustration - traces the rise of statistics from the ancient Babylonians, Egyptians and Chinese, to the censuses of Romans and the Greeks, and the modern emergence of the term itself in Europe. She explores the 'vital statistics' of, in particular, William Farr, and the mathematical statistics of Karl Pearson and R.A. Fisher.She even tells how knowledge of statistics can prolong one's life, as it did for evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould, given eight months to live after a cancer diagnoses in 1982 - and he lived until 2002. This title offers an enjoyable, surprise-filled tour through a subject that is both fascinating and crucial to understanding our world.
This book is the culmination of several years work by a group of academics, policy-makers and other professionals looking to understand how alternative economic thinking – and indeed thinking from quite different social-scientific disciplines – could enhance the mainstream economic approach to environmental and natural-resource problems. Of the editors, Dietz comes from the mainstream economics tradition, while Michie and Oughton draw explicitly on institutional and evolutionary economics. The various authors represent a range of disciplinary backgrounds and approaches. This book draws on the strengths of each and all of these approaches to analyse environmental issues and what can be done to tackle these through corporate and public policy. The book argues that the need for an inter-disciplinary approach. Two themes which emerge repeatedly throughout the book are the need for an interdisciplinary theory of technological change, and the need for a similarly interdisciplinary approach to the study of human behaviour and how it influences both production and consumption choices. The two themes are of course related. Resolving environmental questions requires an understanding of their nature, of their causes and, to the extent that they are anthropogenic, of how to change human behaviour. These fundamental issues are the focus of the four chapters that form Part 1 of this volume. The remainder of the volume develops them in more detail. .
Wie können mündige Patienten die Gesundheitsversorgung verbessern? Welche Handlungsstrategien lassen sich hieraus für Leistungserbringer, Krankenkassen und Gesundheitspolitik ableiten? Für alle, die an der Organisation der Gesundheitsversorgung unmittelbar oder mittelbar beteiligt sind, werden diese Fragen von Autoren verschiedener Disziplinen diskutiert.
Since the mid-1990s risk management has dramatically expanded its reach and significance to become a benchmark of good governance for a wide variety of public and private organizations. This book shows that the rise of risk management has much less to do with real dangers and opportunities than with organizational accountability and legitimacy.
The symposium Assessment and Management of New and Developed Fisheries in Data-limited Situations, held October 22-25, 2003, in Anchorage, Alaska, brought together scientists, fishery managers, and policy makers to share research information on the management of newly developing and small-scale fisheries with limited data. Forty-six peer-reviewed research papers provide scientific background for possible new fisheries worldwide. Contributions include new applications of production models, new assessment techniques requiring meager data, and creative fishery management schemes. As most of the worlds large marine fisheries are fully exploited or overfished, new fisheries are critical to meet the global demand for seafood products.
In this book of 1825, Samuel Hibbert (1782–1848) attempts to uncover the physical or physiological causes which might account for claims of seeing ghosts and other apparitions. Hibbert trained as a doctor, and uses anecdotal and case-study evidence to show that external physical circumstances - such as the use of stimulants, brain inflammation, hallucination during fever, or alcohol withdrawal - are most likely to be the causes of apparent sightings of supernatural phenomena. He explores the power of suggestion, whether derived from superstitions, folk tales or biblical imagery, on the imagination of the impressionable. Using the idea that the train of thought can be stimulated or depressed, and that different levels of semi-consciousness can admit of different levels of contemplation and concentration, Hibbert hypothesises that for each apparition or ghostly spectre there is a rational explanation.