This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Texas Tech University, USA.
The purpose of this book is to provide a comprehensive discussion of the available results for discrete time branching processes with random control functions. The independence of individuals’ reproduction is a fundamental assumption in the classical branching processes. Alternatively, the controlled branching processes (CBPs) allow the number of reproductive individuals in one generation to decrease or increase depending on the size of the previous generation. Generating a wide range of behaviors, the CBPs have been successfully used as modeling tools in diverse areas of applications.
As Eugene Wigner stressed, mathematics has proven unreasonably effective in the physical sciences and their technological applications. The role of mathematics in the biological, medical and social sciences has been much more modest but has recently grown thanks to the simulation capacity offered by modern computers. This book traces the history of population dynamics---a theoretical subject closely connected to genetics, ecology, epidemiology and demography---where mathematics has brought significant insights. It presents an overview of the genesis of several important themes: exponential growth, from Euler and Malthus to the Chinese one-child policy; the development of stochastic models, from Mendel's laws and the question of extinction of family names to percolation theory for the spread of epidemics, and chaotic populations, where determinism and randomness intertwine. The reader of this book will see, from a different perspective, the problems that scientists face when governments ask for reliable predictions to help control epidemics (AIDS, SARS, swine flu), manage renewable resources (fishing quotas, spread of genetically modified organisms) or anticipate demographic evolutions such as aging.
Based on lecture notes of two summer schools with a mixed audience from mathematical sciences, epidemiology and public health, this volume offers a comprehensive introduction to basic ideas and techniques in modeling infectious diseases, for the comparison of strategies to plan for an anticipated epidemic or pandemic, and to deal with a disease outbreak in real time. It covers detailed case studies for diseases including pandemic influenza, West Nile virus, and childhood diseases. Models for other diseases including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, fox rabies, and sexually transmitted infections are included as applications. Its chapters are coherent and complementary independent units. In order to accustom students to look at the current literature and to experience different perspectives, no attempt has been made to achieve united writing style or unified notation. Notes on some mathematical background (calculus, matrix algebra, differential equations, and probability) have been prepared and may be downloaded at the web site of the Centre for Disease Modeling (www.cdm.yorku.ca).
KEY BENEFIT: This reference introduces a variety of mathematical models for biological systems, and presents the mathematical theory and techniques useful in analyzing those models. Material is organized according to the mathematical theory rather than the biological application. Contains applications of mathematical theory to biological examples in each chapter. Focuses on deterministic mathematical models with an emphasis on predicting the qualitative solution behavior over time. Discusses classical mathematical models from population , including the Leslie matrix model, the Nicholson-Bailey model, and the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model. Also discusses more recent models, such as a model for the Human Immunodeficiency Virus - HIV and a model for flour beetles. KEY MARKET: Readers seeking a solid background in the mathematics behind modeling in biology and exposure to a wide variety of mathematical models in biology.
This book explains a procedure for constructing realistic stochastic differential equation models for randomly varying systems in biology, chemistry, physics, engineering, and finance. Introductory chapters present the fundamental concepts of random variables, stochastic processes, stochastic integration, and stochastic differential equations. These concepts are explained in a Hilbert space setting which unifies and simplifies the presentation.
This textbook provides an exciting new addition to the area of network science featuring a stronger and more methodical link of models to their mathematical origin and explains how these relate to each other with special focus on epidemic spread on networks. The content of the book is at the interface of graph theory, stochastic processes and dynamical systems. The authors set out to make a significant contribution to closing the gap between model development and the supporting mathematics. This is done by: Summarising and presenting the state-of-the-art in modeling epidemics on networks with results and readily usable models signposted throughout the book; Presenting different mathematical approaches to formulate exact and solvable models; Identifying the concrete links between approximate models and their rigorous mathematical representation; Presenting a model hierarchy and clearly highlighting the links between model assumptions and model complexity; Providing a reference source for advanced undergraduate students, as well as doctoral students, postdoctoral researchers and academic experts who are engaged in modeling stochastic processes on networks; Providing software that can solve differential equation models or directly simulate epidemics on networks. Replete with numerous diagrams, examples, instructive exercises, and online access to simulation algorithms and readily usable code, this book will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers from different backgrounds and academic levels. Appropriate for students with or without a strong background in mathematics, this textbook can form the basis of an advanced undergraduate or graduate course in both mathematics and other departments alike.
This volume develops results on continuous time branching processes and applies them to study rate of tumor growth, extending classic work on the Luria-Delbruck distribution. As a consequence, the author calculate the probability that mutations that confer resistance to treatment are present at detection and quantify the extent of tumor heterogeneity. As applications, the author evaluate ovarian cancer screening strategies and give rigorous proofs for results of Heano and Michor concerning tumor metastasis. These notes should be accessible to students who are familiar with Poisson processes and continuous time Markov chains. Richard Durrett is a mathematics professor at Duke University, USA. He is the author of 8 books, over 200 journal articles, and has supervised more than 40 Ph.D students. Most of his current research concerns the applications of probability to biology: ecology, genetics and most recently cancer.
This volume discusses the rich and interesting properties of dynamical systems that appear in ecology and environmental sciences. It provides a fascinating survey of the theory of dynamical systems in ecology and environmental science. Each chapter introduces students and scholars to the state-of-the-art in an exciting area, presents new results, and inspires future contributions to mathematical modeling in ecology and environmental sciences.
The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of infectious diseases. It includes model building, fitting to data, local and global analysis techniques. Various types of deterministic dynamical models are considered: ordinary differential equation models, delay-differential equation models, difference equation models, age-structured PDE models and diffusion models. It includes various techniques for the computation of the basic reproduction number as well as approaches to the epidemiological interpretation of the reproduction number. MATLAB code is included to facilitate the data fitting and the simulation with age-structured models.
This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in the fast growing research area of modeling the influence of information-driven human behavior on the spread and control of infectious diseases. In particular, it features the two main and inter-related “core” topics: behavioral changes in response to global threats, for example, pandemic influenza, and the pseudo-rational opposition to vaccines. In order to make realistic predictions, modelers need to go beyond classical mathematical epidemiology to take these dynamic effects into account. With contributions from experts in this field, the book fills a void in the literature. It goes beyond classical texts, yet preserves the rationale of many of them by sticking to the underlying biology without compromising on scientific rigor. Epidemiologists, theoretical biologists, biophysicists, applied mathematicians, and PhD students will benefit from this book. However, it is also written for Public Health professionals interested in understanding models, and to advanced undergraduate students, since it only requires a working knowledge of mathematical epidemiology.
In this contribution, several probabilistic tools to study population dynamics are developed. The focus is on scaling limits of qualitatively different stochastic individual based models and the long time behavior of some classes of limiting processes. Structured population dynamics are modeled by measure-valued processes describing the individual behaviors and taking into account the demographic and mutational parameters, and possible interactions between individuals. Many quantitative parameters appear in these models and several relevant normalizations are considered, leading to infinite-dimensional deterministic or stochastic large-population approximations. Biologically relevant questions are considered, such as extinction criteria, the effect of large birth events, the impact of environmental catastrophes, the mutation-selection trade-off, recovery criteria in parasite infections, genealogical properties of a sample of individuals. These notes originated from a lecture series on Structured Population Dynamics at Ecole polytechnique (France). Vincent Bansaye and Sylvie Méléard are Professors at Ecole Polytechnique (France). They are a specialists of branching processes and random particle systems in biology. Most of their research concerns the applications of probability to biodiversity, ecology and evolution.
An Introduction to Stochastic Processes with Applications to Biology, Second Edition presents the basic theory of stochastic processes necessary in understanding and applying stochastic methods to biological problems in areas such as population growth and extinction, drug kinetics, two-species competition and predation, the spread of epidemics, and the genetics of inbreeding. Because of their rich structure, the text focuses on discrete and continuous time Markov chains and continuous time and state Markov processes. New to the Second Edition A new chapter on stochastic differential equations that extends the basic theory to multivariate processes, including multivariate forward and backward Kolmogorov differential equations and the multivariate Itô’s formula The inclusion of examples and exercises from cellular and molecular biology Double the number of exercises and MATLAB® programs at the end of each chapter Answers and hints to selected exercises in the appendix Additional references from the literature This edition continues to provide an excellent introduction to the fundamental theory of stochastic processes, along with a wide range of applications from the biological sciences. To better visualize the dynamics of stochastic processes, MATLAB programs are provided in the chapter appendices.
This book presents the proceedings from the International Conference held in Halifax, NS in July 1997. Funded by The Fields Institute and Le Centre de Recherches Mathematiques, the conference was held in honor of the retirement of Professors Lynn Erbe and Herb I. Freedman (University of Alberta). Featured topics include ordinary, partial, functional, and stochastic differential equations and their applications to biology, epidemiology, neurobiology, physiology and other related areas. The 41 papers included in this volume represent the recent work of leading researchers over a wide range of subjects, including bifurcation theory, chaos, stability theory, boundary value problems, persistence theory, neural networks, disease transmission, population dynamics, pattern formation and more. The text would be suitable for a graduate or advanced undergraduate course study in mathematical biology. Features: An overview of current developments in differential equations and mathematical biology. Authoritative contributions from over 60 leading worldwide researchers. Original, refereed contributions.
Extrinsic geometry describes properties of foliations on Riemannian manifolds which can be expressed in terms of the second fundamental form of the leaves. The authors of Topics in Extrinsic Geometry of Codimension-One Foliations achieve a technical tour de force, which will lead to important geometric results. The Integral Formulae, introduced in chapter 1, is a useful for problems such as: prescribing higher mean curvatures of foliations, minimizing volume and energy defined for vector or plane fields on manifolds, and existence of foliations whose leaves enjoy given geometric properties. The Integral Formulae steams from a Reeb formula, for foliations on space forms which generalize the classical ones. For a special auxiliary functions the formulae involve the Newton transformations of the Weingarten operator. The central topic of this book is Extrinsic Geometric Flow (EGF) on foliated manifolds, which may be a tool for prescribing extrinsic geometric properties of foliations. To develop EGF, one needs Variational Formulae, revealed in chapter 2, which expresses a change in different extrinsic geometric quantities of a fixed foliation under leaf-wise variation of the Riemannian Structure of the ambient manifold. Chapter 3 defines a general notion of EGF and studies the evolution of Riemannian metrics along the trajectories of this flow(e.g., describes the short-time existence and uniqueness theory and estimate the maximal existence time).Some special solutions (called Extrinsic Geometric Solutions) of EGF are presented and are of great interest, since they provide Riemannian Structures with very particular geometry of the leaves. This work is aimed at those who have an interest in the differential geometry of submanifolds and foliations of Riemannian manifolds.
Infinite dimensional holomorphy is the study of holomorphic or analytic func tions over complex topological vector spaces. The terms in this description are easily stated and explained and allow the subject to project itself ini tially, and innocently, as a compact theory with well defined boundaries. However, a comprehensive study would include delving into, and interacting with, not only the obvious topics of topology, several complex variables theory and functional analysis but also, differential geometry, Jordan algebras, Lie groups, operator theory, logic, differential equations and fixed point theory. This diversity leads to a dynamic synthesis of ideas and to an appreciation of a remarkable feature of mathematics - its unity. Unity requires synthesis while synthesis leads to unity. It is necessary to stand back every so often, to take an overall look at one's subject and ask "How has it developed over the last ten, twenty, fifty years? Where is it going? What am I doing?" I was asking these questions during the spring of 1993 as I prepared a short course to be given at Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro during the following July. The abundance of suit able material made the selection of topics difficult. For some time I hesitated between two very different aspects of infinite dimensional holomorphy, the geometric-algebraic theory associated with bounded symmetric domains and Jordan triple systems and the topological theory which forms the subject of the present book.
"The mathematical theory of persistence answers questions such as which species, in a mathematical model of interacting species, will survive over the long term. It applies to infinite-dimensional as well as to finite-dimensional dynamical systems, and to discrete-time as well as to continuous-time semiflows. This monograph provides a self-contained treatment of persistence theory that is accessible to graduate students. The key results for deterministic autonomous systems are proved in full detail such as the acyclicity theorem and the tripartition of a global compact attractor. Suitable conditions are given for persistence to imply strong persistence even for nonautonomous semiflows, and time-heterogeneous persistence results are developed using so-called 'average Lyapunov functions'. Applications play a large role in the monograph from the beginning. These include ODE models such as an SEIRS infectious disease in a meta-population and discrete-time nonlinear matrix models of demographic dynamics. Entire chapters are devoted to infinite-dimensional examples including an SI epidemic model with variable infectivity, microbial growth in a tubular bioreactor, and an age-structured model of cells growing in a chemostat."--Publisher's description.
"Fascinating.... Lays a foundation for understanding human history."—Bill Gates In this "artful, informative, and delightful" (William H. McNeill, New York Review of Books) book, Jared Diamond convincingly argues that geographical and environmental factors shaped the modern world. Societies that had had a head start in food production advanced beyond the hunter-gatherer stage, and then developed religion --as well as nasty germs and potent weapons of war --and adventured on sea and land to conquer and decimate preliterate cultures. A major advance in our understanding of human societies, Guns, Germs, and Steel chronicles the way that the modern world came to be and stunningly dismantles racially based theories of human history. Winner of the Pulitzer Prize, the Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science, the Rhone-Poulenc Prize, and the Commonwealth club of California's Gold Medal.
Delay Differential Equations emphasizes the global analysis of full nonlinear equations or systems. The book treats both autonomous and nonautonomous systems with various delays. Key topics addressed are the possible delay influence on the dynamics of the system, such as stability switching as time delay increases, the long time coexistence of populations, and the oscillatory aspects of the dynamics. The book also includes coverage of the interplay of spatial diffusion and time delays in some diffusive delay population models. The treatment presented in this monograph will be of great value in the study of various classes of DDEs and their multidisciplinary applications.